BY ERIC HE
Eric He is a second-year International Development student at SAIS.
Increasing temperatures and less predictable weather patterns pose a serious challenge to Chinese farmers’ agricultural practices. While most Chinese farmers are able to correctly perceive the climate trend and variability (Hageback et al. 2005, 209; Li et al. 2013, 899; Kibue et al. 2016, 980-981; Hou, Huang, and Wang 2017, 201-202), some farmers cannot turn their perception into adaptive behaviors (Kibue et al. 2016, 981-984). Even if they can, some of those behaviors, such as intensifying the use of chemical fertilizers (Hageback et al. 2005, 202-203), will only aggravate the negative impacts of climate change, forming a vicious feedback loop.
Climate Trend and Variability in China
Due to the country’s large land mass, China’s climate varies greatly across regions. While the weather in general is heavily influenced by the winter and summer monsoons, the impact of monsoons on different regions varies greatly (Sall 2013, 1).
China’s country-wide average temperature has increased by 1.4oC since 1951 (NARCC 2011). Winters have been warmer with fewer extreme cold days, while extreme hot days have been more frequent with more days experiencing record-breaking temperature (Zhou, and Ren 2010). The increase in temperature has been most prevalent in the northern part of the country, whereas in certain parts of the southwestern region the increase has been much slower (NARCC 2011).
Trends in Exposure of Cropland to Drought, 1978-2009
Source: Sall, Chris. 2013. “Climate trends and impacts in China.” World Bank Group, Washington D.C. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/17558. p. 15
Trends in Exposure of Cropland to Flooding, 1978-2009
Source: Sall, Chris. 2013. “Climate trends and impacts in China.” World Bank Group, Washington D.C. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/17558. p. 19
The regional variation in precipitation is also concerning. The northeastern region has experienced less rainfall concentration in the summer, while the northwestern and the Yangtze River basin have experienced more (Sall 2013, 8). It is projected that 75% of precipitation in the northern river basins will come from heavy rain, making the predictability and storage of water flow more difficult (Sall 2013, 11), and posing a greater challenge to farmers’ adaptability.
Extreme climate events like drought and floods are becoming more frequent and are affecting millions of hectares of land each year, incurring billions of economic losses (Sall 2013, 15-19). Areas affected by drought have been expanding from the northern region to south and southwestern regions while long-afflicted areas are projected to receive even more frequent and severe droughts (Sall 2013, 15-17). On the other hand, there has been an increase in the area of crop fields affected by floods since 1978, most of which has been concentrated in the upper Yangtze River basin, Tibet, Yunnan and Guangxi provinces (Sall 2013, 18-19).
Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change
Studies have found that farmers’ perception generally conformed to the meteorological observation. One case study demonstrated how farmers living in the Loess Plateau perceived climate variability (Hageback et al. 2005). It found that the overall trend in rainfall has been declining while the average annual temperature has been increasing. Most farmers’ perception of the general climate trend conformed to the data, but there was a slight misperception of the frequency of extreme events as farmers focused more on those causing the most economic loss and over-perceive their frequency.
Another study conducted across nine provinces emphasized farmers’ perception of drought (Hou, Huang, and Wang 2017). Data revealed that six of the nine provinces have been experiencing drought with increasing severity and more than half of the participating farmers correctly reported this trend. The study pointed out that farmers’ perception was significantly influenced by their direct surroundings, as those living in drought counties were more likely to correctly perceive climate change. An econometric analysis also discovered that farmers with higher age, larger farm size and living on plains were less likely to correctly perceive drought.
A similar study was conducted in Tibet (Li et al. 2013). Data showed a clear upward trend in temperature and a moderate decline in precipitation. Farmers were better at perceiving the change in the former than the latter. The majority of participants perceived no change in precipitation, about 50% perceived an increase in drought. This is probably a result of the easily observable negative impact of drought on agricultural livelihoods.
Farmers’ Adaptation
Various studies identify four main adaptive practices: 1) crop diversification and the adjustment of growing schedules; 2) adoption of new irrigation technologies; 3) intensification of chemical fertilizer usage; 4) pursuit of off-farm income opportunities.
Farmers adjusted the time of planting crops and the type of crops based on the weather forecast. All crops were drought resistant, although their dependency on rainfall varied (Hageback et al. 2005, 201-202). Intriguingly, many farmers identified economic values rather than climate resistance of crops as the most important factor (Hageback et al. 2005, 202-203).
Adopting new irrigation technologies is another adaptive behavior that is beneficial to the environment. Research indicates that the adoption of improved irrigation technologies could lead to cooler surface temperature and reduced water use intensity (Kang, and Eltahir 2019, 5501; Wu, Jin, and Zhao 2010, 804). However, the adoption of irrigation technologies is limited. In one study, only 2% of farming households were using underground pipes, and 1% were using sprinklers (Hou et al. 2017, 203). Some main factors preventing the adoption of irrigation technologies include lack of information, lack of credit, and poor connection to extension services (Hou et al. 2017, 204; Kibue et al. 2016, 978).
China’s consumption of nitrogen fertilizers has been increasing since the 1980s and it now uses the most synthetic nitrogen in the world (Huang 2013, 1381). The overuse of chemical fertilizers has led to the pollution of ground water and the reduction of soil fertility (Ju et al. 2005). Meanwhile the increasing pressure on productivity only pushes farmers to apply even more fertilizers – trapping them in a negative feedback loop (Ju et al. 2005). Many people believe fertilizer overuse in China is closely related to the government’s subsidy to fertilizer producers (Shen, Du, and Wang 2008, 104-107; Huang 2013, 1386-1387). However, the lack of information of and access to alternative technologies is another important reason why many farmers stick to fertilizers (Huang 2013, 1387).
Seeking off-farm employment has become a common practice across the country and it is expected this trend will continue (Hageback et al. 2005, 204-205; Ostwald, and Chen 2006, 368; Wilk et al. 2015, 397-399; Li et al. 2013, 904). While climate change is definitely playing a role in this trend as the unpredictability is making farming more challenging, it is an indirect factor that works its impact through economic incentives. Government policies regarding people’s mobility is also a factor. The influence of this adaptive strategy on climate is unclear, but one would speculate that the more people move away from agriculture, the heavier the burden placed on those staying, which would trigger other adaptive behaviors on both the household and the government level.
Guidance to Farmers’ Adaptation
While the previous section focuses on farmers’ adaptive behaviors, it should be noted that there are still a lot of farmers not adapting to climate change. Therefore, there needs to be an effort on triggering, in addition to improving, adaptation strategies.
The availability of information is an important factor that determines farmers’ perception and adaptation. Most farmers treat the weather forecast as the primary information source of weather trends and extreme climate events, and they use this information to guide their adaptive behaviors (Hageback et al. 2005, 200). Those with better access to information were economically better-off than their counterparts (Kibue et al. 2016, 980-982). Providing early warning information regarding drought would increase the probability that farmers could correctly perceive drought and implement adaptative strategies (Hou et al. 2017, 208). Thus, a reasonable way to guide farmers’ adaptation would be to make comprehensive climate information more accessible to farmers through TV, radio, newspaper and agricultural extension services.
Another equally important way to guide adaptation is to set incentives right. While the government subsidy is distorting the fertilizer market and encouraging farmers to overuse agrichemicals (Huang 2013, 1386-1387), a better method would be improving credit availability to farmers so that they can acquire the necessary capital to invest in more expensive, yet more environmentally sustainable, adaptive strategies - such as upgrading irrigation technologies (Kibue et al. 2016; Hou et al. 2017). However, the unique state-market relationship in China will make this option difficult to be put into practice.
Conclusion
Correctly perceiving and adapting to climate change is essential to achieving sustainable agriculture. Chinese farmers’ perception to climate change generally conforms to meteorological data, but adaptation is uneven and falls short in some regions due to lack of information and limited access to capital. Farmers’ adaptive strategies are diverse and are influenced by not only their perception to climate change, but also by economic factors and government policies. While some strategies such as crop diversification are beneficial to both farmers and the climate, others, like overapplication of chemical fertilizers, only benefit farmers in the short run while negatively influencing the environment. To better guide farmers’ adaption, comprehensive climate information should be more accessible to farmers, and government policies should set incentives right.
Bibliography
Hageback, Johanna, Jenny Sundberg, Madelene Ostwald, Deliang Chen, Xie Yun, and Per Knutsson. 2005. “Climate Variability and Land-use Change in Danangou Watershed, China – Examples of Small-Scale Farmers’ Adaptation.” Climate Change, 72: 189-212. doi: 10.1007/s10584-005-5384-7
Hou, Lingling, Jikun Huang, and Jinxia Wang. 2017. “Early Warning Information, Farmers’ Perceptions of, and Adaptations to drought in China.” Climate Change, 141: 197-212. doi: 10.1007/s10584-017-1900-9
Huang, Guangwei. 2013. “Validation of Late Season Cornstalk Nitrate Test under Different Natural and Social Environments for Better Fertilizer Management in China.” Oriental Journal of Chemistry, 29 (4): 1381-1389. ISSN: 0970-020 X
Ju, X., C. Kou, F. Zhang, and P. Christie. 2005. “Nitrogen Balance and Groundwater Nitrate Contamination: Comparison among Three Intensive Cropping Systems on the North China Plain.” Environment Pollution, 143 (1): 117–125.
Kang, Suchul, and Elfatih A.B. Eltahir. 2019. “Impact of Irrigation on Regional Climate over Eastern China.” Geophysical Research Letters, 46: 5499-5505. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082396
Kibue, Grace Wanjiru, Xiaoyu Liu, Jufeng Zheng, Xuhui Zhang, Genxing Pan, Lianqing Li, and Xiaojun Han. 2016. “Farmers’ Perception of Climate Variability and Factors Influencing Adaptation: Evidence from Anhui and Jiangsu, China.” Environmental Management, 57: 976-986. doi: 10.1007/s00267-016-0661-y
Li, Chunyan, Ya Tang, Han Luo, Baofeng Di, and Liyun Zhang. 2013. “Local Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change and Local Adaptive Strategies: A Case Study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, Tibet, China.” Environmental Management, 52: 894-906. doi: 10.1007/s00267-013-0139-0
NARCC. 2011. “Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change.” Beijing: Sciences Press.
Ostwald, Madelene, and Deliang Chen. 2006. “Land-use Change: Impacts of Climate Variations and Policies among Small-scale Farmers in the Loess Plateau, China.” Land Use Policy, 23: 361-371. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2005.04.004
Sall, Chris. 2013. “Climate trends and impacts in China.” World Bank Group, Washington D.C. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/17558
Shen, Yudan, Ziqiang Du, and Yapeng Wang. 2008. “Inherent mechanism on agrochemical substituting and eco-friendly agrotechnical market.” Research of Agricultural Modernization, 29 (1): 104-107.
Wilk, Julie, Mattias Hjerpe, Wei Fang, and Hua Fan. 2015. “Farm Scale Adaptation under Extreme Climate and Rapid Economic Transition.” Environ Dev Sustain, 17: 393-407. doi: 10.1007/s10668-014-9549-2
Wu, Pute, Jimin Jin, and Xining Zhao. 2010. “Impact of Climate Change and Irrigation Technology Advancement on Agricultural Water Use in China: A letter.” Climate Change, 100: 797-805. doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9860-3
Zhou, Yaqing, and Guoyu Ren. 2010. “Variation of Extreme Temperature Events on Mainland China, 1956-2008.” Climate and Environmental Research, 15 (4): 405-417.
PHOTO CREDIT: Free use image from Canva Pro.